Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$423
Return on staked
-42.3%
Bets
3/10 won
Edge vs price
-25.3 pts ±15.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -33.6 pts (1/5). Newer half: -17.0 pts (2/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 25, 17:48 EDTJul 07, 14:08 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | missed | 109d ago |
| Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | missed | 131d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | 50¢ | missed | 141d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 43¢ | called | 147d ago |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 47¢ | called | 154d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 36¢ | missed | 156d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 68¢ | missed | 159d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 65¢ | missed | 167d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 52¢ | missed | 182d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.