Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,102
Return on staked
+50.1%
Bets
12/22 won
Edge vs price
+12.2 pts ±9.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +8.9 pts (5/11). Newer half: +15.5 pts (7/11).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 17:58 ESTOct 23, 19:37 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39¢ | called | 14h ago |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | 44¢ | missed | 16h ago |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 55¢ | called | 21h ago |
| Spread: Bears (-2.5) | 54¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | 55¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Hornets vs. Nets | 53¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Hawks vs. Magic | 56¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | 52¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | 40¢ | missed | 5d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 42¢ | called | 10d ago |
| Bills vs. Rams | 39¢ | called | 12d ago |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | 40¢ | called | 12d ago |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10? | 56¢ | missed | 13d ago |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 26¢ | called | 19d ago |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | 51¢ | missed | 19d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.