Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$163
Return on staked
-14.8%
Bets
5/11 won
Edge vs price
-7.7 pts ±15.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +7.4 pts (3/5). Newer half: -20.2 pts (2/6). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 02, 20:56 EDTOct 24, 13:54 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Heat (-2.5) | 54¢ | missed | 7h ago |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: O/U 61.5 | 55¢ | missed | 23h ago |
| Spread: Pistons (-1.5) | 51¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | 53¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Spread: BYU (-7.5) | 57¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: Alabama (-13.5) | 52¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Spread: South Carolina (-1.5) | 54¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: LSU (-6.5) | 56¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: LSU (-7.5) | 48¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: Liberty (-10.5) | 55¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | 51¢ | missed | 22d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.