Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$33
Return on staked
-4.7%
Bets
4/7 won
Edge vs price
+4.3 pts ±17.3
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 29, 01:10 EDTOct 01, 18:57 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams vs. Eagles | 62¢ | called | 22d ago |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | 75¢ | called | 51d ago |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | 77¢ | missed | 55d ago |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | 58¢ | called | 57d ago |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 | 50¢ | called | 138d ago |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | 25¢ | missed | 148d ago |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | 23¢ | missed | 148d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.