Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$707
Return on staked
-54.4%
Bets
5/13 won
Edge vs price
-24.1 pts ±9.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -18.8 pts (1/6). Newer half: -28.7 pts (4/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 01, 13:17 ESTSep 14, 07:49 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 80¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 93¢ | missed | 172d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 95¢ | missed | 173d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 71¢ | called | 196d ago |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | 92¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 80¢ | missed | 243d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 90¢ | called | 244d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | 93¢ | called | 269d ago |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | 62¢ | missed | 276d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 5¢ | missed | 281d ago |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | 45¢ | missed | 294d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 4¢ | missed | 295d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 3¢ | missed | 295d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.