Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,382
Return on staked
+172.7%
Bets
7/8 won
Edge vs price
+20.7 pts ±10.4
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 09, 17:07 EDTAug 27, 12:05 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 58d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 59d ago |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | 91¢ | called | 89d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | 84¢ | called | 99d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 64¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 7¢ | called | 176d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 4¢ | missed | 177d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 95¢ | called | 198d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.