Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$136
Return on staked
-19.5%
Bets
4/7 won
Edge vs price
-5.0 pts ±17.8
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 29, 00:24 EDTAug 22, 01:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs | 75¢ | called | 63d ago |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | 63¢ | called | 73d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 50¢ | missed | 111d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 48¢ | missed | 111d ago |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | 69¢ | called | 125d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | 51¢ | missed | 134d ago |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | 79¢ | called | 148d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.