Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$310
Return on staked
+23.9%
Bets
13/13 won
Edge vs price
+17.1 pts ±9.9
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +16.7 pts (6/6). Newer half: +17.4 pts (7/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 11, 00:59 ESTFeb 08, 03:42 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 51¢ | called | 258d ago |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | 68¢ | called | 258d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 286d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 92¢ | called | 288d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 92¢ | called | 289d ago |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 290d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 291d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 89¢ | called | 294d ago |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 295d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | called | 297d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 76¢ | called | 312d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 79¢ | called | 316d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 80¢ | called | 317d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.