Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$44
Return on staked
+10.9%
Bets
4/4 won
Edge vs price
+9.2 pts ±14.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 11, 07:41 ESTJan 21, 15:18 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 78¢ | called | 275d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 280d ago |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 281d ago |
| Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? | 95¢ | called | 317d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.