Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$473
Return on staked
+20.6%
Bets
16/23 won
Edge vs price
+7.5 pts ±9.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +25.5 pts (10/11). Newer half: -9.1 pts (6/12). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 07, 19:24 EDTOct 23, 10:00 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 55¢ | called | 20h ago |
| Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-22? | 55¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Predators vs. Bruins | 41¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Kings vs. Islanders | 48¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Flyers vs. Sabres | 65¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 59¢ | missed | 19d ago |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | 38¢ | called | 30d ago |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves | 64¢ | missed | 31d ago |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 59¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | 57¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | 80¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 82¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | 86¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 79¢ | called | 42d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.