Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$544
Return on staked
+32.0%
Bets
9/17 won
Edge vs price
+9.6 pts ±9.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +13.3 pts (3/8). Newer half: +6.2 pts (6/9). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 09, 05:07 EDTSep 16, 00:10 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 25¢ | missed | 38d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 78¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 79¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | 52¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | 61¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | 63¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | 53¢ | missed | 97d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 57¢ | missed | 104d ago |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | 76¢ | called | 104d ago |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 97¢ | called | 113d ago |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 10¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 11¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 16¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 16¢ | called | 136d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 11¢ | missed | 137d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.