Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$232
Return on staked
+7.0%
Bets
30/33 won
Edge vs price
+6.4 pts ±6.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +18.7 pts (16/16). Newer half: -5.2 pts (14/17). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 12, 02:23 EDTOct 20, 17:48 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) | 96¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | 93¢ | missed | 12d ago |
| Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15? | 93¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | 95¢ | called | 44d ago |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | 78¢ | missed | 45d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | 95¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | 95¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | 94¢ | called | 59d ago |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | 93¢ | called | 59d ago |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | 91¢ | called | 59d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 60¢ | missed | 102d ago |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | 86¢ | called | 109d ago |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | 93¢ | called | 113d ago |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 82¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 82¢ | called | 132d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.