Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$770
Return on staked
-27.5%
Bets
13/28 won
Edge vs price
+2.3 pts ±6.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -8.1 pts (4/14). Newer half: +12.6 pts (9/14).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 25, 13:48 EDTAug 31, 23:07 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 56¢ | called | 53d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 57¢ | called | 54d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 40¢ | called | 75d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 37¢ | called | 75d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 35¢ | called | 75d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | 95¢ | called | 81d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 19¢ | missed | 81d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 19¢ | missed | 81d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 86d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 23¢ | missed | 108d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | 85¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 29¢ | missed | 128d ago |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 37¢ | missed | 154d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | 94¢ | called | 183d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 95¢ | called | 184d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.