Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$146
Return on staked
+10.4%
Bets
13/14 won
Edge vs price
+13.0 pts ±9.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +13.9 pts (6/7). Newer half: +12.2 pts (7/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 22, 17:16 EDTSep 20, 15:52 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 96¢ | called | 33d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 82¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 87¢ | called | 78d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | 77¢ | called | 79d ago |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | 86¢ | called | 81d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 92¢ | called | 100d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | 92¢ | called | 107d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | 83¢ | called | 108d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 78¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 93¢ | called | 125d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 80¢ | called | 128d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 64¢ | called | 147d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 12¢ | missed | 215d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.