Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$49
Return on staked
-6.1%
Bets
7/8 won
Edge vs price
+5.2 pts ±8.7
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 27, 15:27 EDTJun 24, 19:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 6¢ | missed | 121d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 95¢ | called | 158d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 94¢ | called | 166d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 91¢ | called | 187d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 96¢ | called | 202d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 88¢ | called | 202d ago |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 97¢ | called | 211d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 92¢ | called | 211d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.