Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$157
Return on staked
-14.3%
Bets
5/11 won
Edge vs price
-3.8 pts ±14.9
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -8.8 pts (2/5). Newer half: +0.4 pts (3/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 01, 10:28 ESTOct 24, 05:30 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | 53¢ | called | 15h ago |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? | 47¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | 51¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 | 51¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | 44¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | called | 36d ago |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | 49¢ | missed | 61d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 32¢ | missed | 156d ago |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | 52¢ | called | 157d ago |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | 47¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | 64¢ | called | 237d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.