Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$458
Return on staked
-38.2%
Bets
6/12 won
Edge vs price
+1.4 pts ±9.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +3.9 pts (2/6). Newer half: -1.1 pts (4/6). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 10, 01:49 EDTSep 11, 09:03 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 80¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 85¢ | called | 76d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | 7¢ | missed | 254d ago |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | 45¢ | missed | 264d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 273d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 275d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | 95¢ | called | 276d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 55¢ | called | 282d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | 8¢ | missed | 284d ago |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | 6¢ | missed | 368d ago |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | 6¢ | missed | 373d ago |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | 7¢ | missed | 379d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.