Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$624
Return on staked
+39.0%
Bets
9/16 won
Edge vs price
+13.8 pts ±11.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +24.1 pts (5/8). Newer half: +3.5 pts (4/8). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 03, 07:13 ESTOct 06, 12:43 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | 58¢ | called | 17d ago |
| Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? | 41¢ | called | 38d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | 17¢ | missed | 41d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | 64¢ | called | 52d ago |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | 43¢ | missed | 72d ago |
| LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | 64¢ | missed | 85d ago |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo | 67¢ | called | 98d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 18¢ | missed | 115d ago |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 43¢ | missed | 152d ago |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | 39¢ | called | 158d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | 41¢ | missed | 166d ago |
| Magic vs. Pistons | 21¢ | called | 187d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | 53¢ | called | 198d ago |
| Wild vs. Panthers | 41¢ | missed | 212d ago |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | 33¢ | called | 234d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.