Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$128
Return on staked
+21.3%
Bets
4/6 won
Edge vs price
+13.0 pts ±20.3
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 21, 18:58 EDTJun 29, 09:11 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | 56¢ | called | 117d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | 48¢ | missed | 119d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | 60¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | 49¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | 56¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | 53¢ | missed | 186d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.