Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$3,344
Return on staked
+176.0%
Bets
3/19 won
Edge vs price
+0.9 pts ±7.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +17.8 pts (3/9). Newer half: -14.3 pts (0/10). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 14, 16:10 ESTApr 09, 14:49 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 24¢ | missed | 197d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 14¢ | missed | 200d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 8¢ | missed | 200d ago |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | 24¢ | missed | 214d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 3¢ | missed | 218d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 23¢ | missed | 225d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 12¢ | missed | 225d ago |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | 25¢ | missed | 225d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 5¢ | missed | 225d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 5¢ | missed | 226d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 24¢ | missed | 226d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 6¢ | missed | 226d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | 4¢ | called | 252d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | 4¢ | called | 252d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 68¢ | called | 257d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.