Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$126
Return on staked
-10.5%
Bets
9/12 won
Edge vs price
-4.4 pts ±10.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -4.5 pts (4/6). Newer half: -4.4 pts (5/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Nov 04, 04:59 ESTJun 08, 16:28 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 95¢ | missed | 137d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 97¢ | called | 141d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 74¢ | called | 150d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 151d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 83¢ | called | 192d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 88¢ | called | 197d ago |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | 83¢ | called | 218d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 50¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 45¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | 66¢ | called | 242d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | 92¢ | called | 242d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 92¢ | called | 354d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.