Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$175
Return on staked
-7.9%
Bets
18/22 won
Edge vs price
+1.0 pts ±6.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +2.7 pts (10/11). Newer half: -0.7 pts (8/11). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 30, 06:55 ESTOct 12, 02:08 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 12d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 58d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 93¢ | called | 59d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 92¢ | called | 74d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 60¢ | missed | 102d ago |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 96¢ | called | 116d ago |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 97¢ | called | 126d ago |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 3¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 93¢ | called | 188d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 76¢ | called | 197d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 92¢ | called | 210d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 87¢ | called | 217d ago |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 95¢ | called | 217d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | 82¢ | called | 229d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.