Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$102
Return on staked
-8.5%
Bets
10/12 won
Edge vs price
-8.5 pts ±7.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -22.8 pts (4/6). Newer half: +5.8 pts (6/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 31, 08:43 EDTMay 23, 20:28 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 97¢ | called | 153d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 95¢ | called | 171d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 92¢ | called | 183d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 95¢ | called | 192d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 92¢ | called | 193d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | 94¢ | called | 200d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 82¢ | called | 201d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 95¢ | missed | 202d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | 91¢ | called | 203d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 94¢ | missed | 203d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | 91¢ | called | 204d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 84¢ | called | 207d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.