Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$392
Return on staked
-39.2%
Bets
4/10 won
Edge vs price
-9.7 pts ±13.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -14.1 pts (1/5). Newer half: -5.4 pts (3/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 26, 20:15 EDTSep 13, 01:31 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 73¢ | called | 41d ago |
| 49ers vs. Rams | 65¢ | missed | 45d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 54¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | 76¢ | called | 62d ago |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs | 59¢ | missed | 62d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | 65¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | 77¢ | missed | 129d ago |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 19¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 6¢ | missed | 150d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 4¢ | missed | 150d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.