← Wallets
−$60Yes · avg 53¢ → 50¢ · $879+$62Yes · avg 14¢ → 16¢ · $641−$7,707Yes · avg 65¢ → 2.7¢ · $335−$88Yes · avg 14¢ → 11¢ · $322+$43No · avg 67¢ → 78¢ · $294−$122Yes · avg 56¢ → 39¢ · $283−$38Yes · avg 24¢ → 20¢ · $245−$2,007Yes · avg 10¢ → 1.1¢ · $234
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did -9.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-9.7 pts
Called / graded
4/10
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$386.3k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$67k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 54¢) and the edge is -15.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=3
40–60¢
50% vs 56% · n=2
60–80¢
60% vs 71% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$393.9k
Last 30 days −$6,686 · $22.58M volume · 29,168 trades · since May 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.46M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$3.09M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
161d
1963 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -4.7 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +46.0 pts |
| Sports | 7 | 3 | 4.3 | -19.1 pts |
History
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