Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,589
Return on staked
+144.5%
Bets
10/11 won
Edge vs price
+43.8 pts ±14.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +58.4 pts (5/5). Newer half: +31.6 pts (5/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 03, 22:45 EDTAug 22, 09:35 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? | 55¢ | missed | 63d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 58¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 57¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 43¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 55¢ | called | 116d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | 42¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | 51¢ | called | 140d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | 61¢ | called | 168d ago |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 26¢ | called | 184d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | 57¢ | called | 202d ago |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 13¢ | called | 203d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.