← Wallets
−$170.4kYes · avg 29¢ → 14¢ · $148.5k−$4,297Yes · avg 52¢ → 50¢ · $131.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,075No · avg 55¢ → 56¢ · $116.4k−$82.9kYes · avg 60¢ → 32¢ · $98.1k−$968Yes · avg 31¢ → 30¢ · $62.6k+$436Yes · avg 23¢ → 24¢ · $20.4k+$235Over · avg 46¢ → 46¢ · $20.1k+$133Yes · avg 54¢ → 57¢ · $2,214
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did +43.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +39.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+43.8 pts
Called / graded
10/11
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$239.0k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$358k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 13¢) and the edge is +39.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 13% · n=1
20–40¢
100% vs 26% · n=1
40–60¢
88% vs 52% · n=8
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$419.2k
Last 30 days −$743.7k · $42.55M volume · 55,222 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8.56M
Open P&L · 160 positions
−$9.00M
Closed-position win rate
99%
121 closed
Wallet age · markets
204d
281 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 8 | 4.8 | +35.7 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | +80.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $11.5k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $27.1k | called |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $22.1k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $12.3k | called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $17.3k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $13.6k | called |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢ | $21.1k | called |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | MED BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $26.0k | called |
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