Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$1,577
Return on staked
-28.7%
Bets
28/55 won
Edge vs price
-16.0 pts ±6.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -21.8 pts (12/27). Newer half: -10.4 pts (16/28).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 24, 15:33 EDTOct 21, 08:16 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | 77¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Lions vs. Bills | 68¢ | called | 36d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | 81¢ | called | 38d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | 82¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | 75¢ | called | 104d ago |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt? | 93¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 85¢ | called | 109d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 50¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 49¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 52¢ | called | 112d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 94¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | 60¢ | called | 119d ago |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | 80¢ | called | 120d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.