Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$559
Return on staked
+93.2%
Bets
5/6 won
Edge vs price
+40.3 pts ±20.2
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 15, 07:05 EDTOct 21, 14:53 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | 43¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | 42¢ | called | 13d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | 45¢ | called | 57d ago |
| Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina | 42¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala | 41¢ | called | 82d ago |
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | 45¢ | called | 131d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.