Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$303
Return on staked
+27.5%
Bets
11/11 won
Edge vs price
+12.2 pts ±8.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +5.2 pts (5/5). Newer half: +18.1 pts (6/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 20, 15:24 ESTAug 21, 02:39 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 64d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | called | 94d ago |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | 96¢ | called | 98d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | 87¢ | called | 98d ago |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 96¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | 30¢ | called | 253d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 95¢ | called | 281d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 96¢ | called | 289d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 94¢ | called | 307d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 94¢ | called | 307d ago |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 94¢ | called | 308d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.