Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$105
Return on staked
+6.6%
Bets
13/16 won
Edge vs price
+1.2 pts ±9.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -1.3 pts (6/8). Newer half: +3.7 pts (7/8).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 17, 10:14 ESTAug 21, 10:30 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 69¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 66d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 66d ago |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | 65¢ | called | 175d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 93¢ | called | 176d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 90¢ | called | 206d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 78¢ | called | 226d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 87¢ | called | 231d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 87¢ | called | 232d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 84¢ | called | 235d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 55¢ | called | 239d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 78¢ | missed | 247d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 78¢ | missed | 247d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 40¢ | called | 249d ago |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 94¢ | called | 279d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.