Tools · Backtest

What if you had copied them?

Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.

Hypothetical P&L

+$102

Return on staked

+14.6%

Bets

7/7 won

Edge vs price

+12.4 pts ±12.3

Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet

Jan 07, 10:41 ESTSep 14, 17:10 EDT

Most recent bets in the test

Market	Entry	Result	Placed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	88¢	called	39d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	85¢	called	40d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	80¢	called	41d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	81¢	called	43d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	95¢	called	284d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	94¢	called	288d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	91¢	called	290d ago

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Why this overstates what you'd get

You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).

Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.