Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$138
Return on staked
-2.8%
Bets
23/49 won
Edge vs price
-5.1 pts ±6.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -3.6 pts (12/24). Newer half: -6.5 pts (11/25).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 01, 00:52 ESTOct 24, 03:07 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage | 85¢ | missed | 9h ago |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 31¢ | called | 20h ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 52¢ | missed | 21h ago |
| LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 73¢ | missed | 23h ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 51¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 56¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 52¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 58¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Pistons vs. Heat | 52¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 47¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | 74¢ | called | 1d ago |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 35¢ | called | 1d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 23¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 19¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 44¢ | missed | 1d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.