Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$312
Return on staked
-18.3%
Bets
9/17 won
Edge vs price
+0.9 pts ±10.9
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +20.7 pts (6/8). Newer half: -16.6 pts (3/9). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 03, 12:13 ESTJul 02, 08:35 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 84¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 51¢ | missed | 121d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 29¢ | missed | 131d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 10¢ | missed | 138d ago |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 71¢ | called | 157d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 26¢ | missed | 157d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 50¢ | missed | 171d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 45¢ | missed | 171d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 62¢ | called | 187d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 63¢ | called | 190d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 73¢ | called | 190d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 65¢ | called | 199d ago |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 78¢ | called | 213d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 29¢ | missed | 221d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.