Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$285
Return on staked
-25.9%
Bets
4/11 won
Edge vs price
-14.0 pts ±14.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -12.0 pts (2/5). Newer half: -15.7 pts (2/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 14, 09:11 EDTOct 23, 13:40 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks vs. Hornets | 57¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 52¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | 31¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 60¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 44¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | 50¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Hornets vs. Nets | 48¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | 62¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Rams vs. Broncos | 44¢ | called | 30d ago |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs | 65¢ | missed | 81d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 41¢ | called | 102d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.