Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$289
Return on staked
-16.1%
Bets
9/18 won
Edge vs price
-6.9 pts ±11.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -14.2 pts (4/9). Newer half: +0.4 pts (5/9).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 18, 19:36 EDTOct 23, 18:48 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | 51¢ | called | 12h ago |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | 44¢ | missed | 5d ago |
| Falcons vs. Saints | 48¢ | called | 18d ago |
| Lions vs. Panthers | 66¢ | missed | 19d ago |
| Rams vs. Eagles | 64¢ | called | 20d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | 57¢ | missed | 24d ago |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 64¢ | missed | 25d ago |
| Rams vs. Broncos | 50¢ | called | 26d ago |
| Spread: Rams (-2.5) | 52¢ | called | 27d ago |
| Texas A&M vs. LSU | 76¢ | called | 27d ago |
| Fresno State vs. San Jose State | 35¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | 57¢ | missed | 41d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | 54¢ | missed | 97d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | 76¢ | called | 104d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 39¢ | missed | 106d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.