Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$360
Return on staked
-17.1%
Bets
11/21 won
Edge vs price
-8.7 pts ±9.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +5.6 pts (6/10). Newer half: -21.7 pts (5/11). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 29, 20:30 EDTSep 26, 15:23 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 97¢ | called | 28d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 96¢ | called | 30d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 85¢ | called | 50d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 66¢ | missed | 60d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | 58¢ | missed | 66d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 61¢ | missed | 73d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 60¢ | missed | 74d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 63¢ | missed | 77d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 14¢ | missed | 81d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 62¢ | called | 87d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 77¢ | called | 149d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 88¢ | called | 166d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 6¢ | missed | 170d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 57¢ | missed | 178d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 91¢ | called | 184d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.