Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$6
Return on staked
-0.9%
Bets
4/7 won
Edge vs price
+6.8 pts ±17.9
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 13:50 ESTAug 27, 16:41 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | 53¢ | called | 58d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 16¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | 54¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | 47¢ | missed | 152d ago |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | 49¢ | called | 173d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 68¢ | called | 258d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 65¢ | called | 272d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.