Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$11
Return on staked
+0.5%
Bets
13/20 won
Edge vs price
+0.0 pts ±9.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -4.4 pts (6/10). Newer half: +4.5 pts (7/10).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 24, 10:15 ESTOct 03, 07:02 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | 74¢ | missed | 21d ago |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | 37¢ | called | 47d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 72¢ | missed | 72d ago |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 75¢ | called | 91d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 41¢ | missed | 99d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 46¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 94¢ | called | 106d ago |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | 84¢ | called | 121d ago |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | 66¢ | called | 123d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | 65¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | 68¢ | called | 125d ago |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 61¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | 75¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | 54¢ | missed | 128d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | 77¢ | missed | 129d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.