Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$38
Return on staked
-3.5%
Bets
8/11 won
Edge vs price
+10.9 pts ±12.9
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +16.6 pts (4/5). Newer half: +6.1 pts (4/6). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 10, 01:26 EDTSep 18, 19:50 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 83¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 78¢ | called | 88d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 74¢ | called | 88d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 28¢ | missed | 88d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 27¢ | missed | 89d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 73¢ | called | 89d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 20¢ | missed | 89d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 84¢ | called | 90d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 71¢ | called | 196d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 71¢ | called | 197d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 71¢ | called | 197d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.