Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$4
Return on staked
-0.5%
Bets
7/9 won
Edge vs price
+10.3 pts ±13.6
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 13, 07:04 ESTJul 23, 05:47 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 77¢ | called | 93d ago |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 47¢ | missed | 126d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 83¢ | called | 129d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 84¢ | called | 131d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 70¢ | called | 159d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 10¢ | missed | 202d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 72¢ | called | 238d ago |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | 87¢ | called | 245d ago |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 77¢ | called | 315d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.