Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$116
Return on staked
-16.6%
Bets
5/7 won
Edge vs price
+1.5 pts ±13.6
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 14, 15:06 ESTAug 04, 07:58 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 44¢ | missed | 81d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 75¢ | called | 147d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 147d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 88¢ | called | 148d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 13¢ | missed | 167d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 97¢ | called | 195d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 79¢ | called | 282d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.