← Wallets
−$1,890No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $40.0k+$1,136Yes · avg 34¢ → 36¢ · $39.2k+$2,243No · avg 66¢ → 76¢ · $17.4k−$501Yes · avg 15¢ → 14¢ · $16.3k+$6,350No · avg 28¢ → 50¢ · $14.8k+$2,062No · avg 79¢ → 93.5¢ · $13.0k+$362No · avg 85¢ → 88¢ · $10.4k−$420No · avg 78¢ → 74¢ · $8,940
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.9 wins, so it did +1.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+1.5 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
4.9
Flagged volume
$1.47M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$9k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? at 75¢) and the edge is -2.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$574.3k
Last 30 days +$26.4k · $52.29M volume · 40,956 trades · since Jun 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.05M
Open P&L · 364 positions
−$299.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
484d
1398 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +25.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -44.0 pts |
| Other | 5 | 4 | 3.7 | +6.0 pts |
History
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?calledBUY No @ 75¢$15.0k
LOW AllByMyseIf · 147d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?calledSELL Yes @ 6¢$11.6k
LOW AllByMyseIf · 147d ago
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