Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$41
Return on staked
+3.7%
Bets
6/11 won
Edge vs price
+2.5 pts ±15.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -10.4 pts (2/5). Newer half: +13.3 pts (4/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 26, 17:12 ESTOct 22, 17:47 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Memphis (-10.5) | 50¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | 51¢ | missed | 98d ago |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | 55¢ | called | 120d ago |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | 51¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | 57¢ | called | 151d ago |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | 56¢ | missed | 153d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | 51¢ | called | 155d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 52¢ | missed | 181d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | 52¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | 47¢ | missed | 259d ago |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) | 50¢ | missed | 270d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.