Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$214
Return on staked
-10.7%
Bets
12/20 won
Edge vs price
-17.8 pts ±7.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -20.4 pts (6/10). Newer half: -15.3 pts (6/10).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 01, 20:27 EDTSep 20, 15:28 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 96¢ | called | 33d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 82¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 19¢ | missed | 42d ago |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | 95¢ | missed | 86d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 20¢ | called | 145d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 145d ago |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | 91¢ | called | 146d ago |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | 94¢ | called | 146d ago |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? | 70¢ | missed | 171d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 96¢ | missed | 201d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 96¢ | missed | 201d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 36¢ | missed | 205d ago |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | 87¢ | missed | 253d ago |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | 83¢ | missed | 254d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 76¢ | called | 276d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.