Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$281
Return on staked
-46.8%
Bets
3/6 won
Edge vs price
-43.2 pts ±10.3
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 16, 11:12 EDTFeb 07, 19:27 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | 97¢ | called | 258d ago |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | 95¢ | missed | 295d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | 92¢ | called | 295d ago |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | 93¢ | missed | 296d ago |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | 89¢ | missed | 308d ago |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | 93¢ | called | 373d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.