Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$501
Return on staked
-22.8%
Bets
15/22 won
Edge vs price
-2.9 pts ±7.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +2.5 pts (8/11). Newer half: -8.3 pts (7/11). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 28, 10:57 ESTSep 14, 09:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 82¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 27¢ | missed | 88d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 26¢ | missed | 89d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 98d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 98d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 85¢ | called | 105d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 79¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 106d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 109d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 12¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 17¢ | missed | 117d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 18¢ | missed | 119d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 95¢ | called | 165d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.