Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$2,050
Return on staked
+58.6%
Bets
25/35 won
Edge vs price
+8.5 pts ±6.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +2.7 pts (12/17). Newer half: +13.9 pts (13/18).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 14, 05:55 ESTOct 11, 08:00 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 96¢ | called | 13d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 16d ago |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 36¢ | called | 25d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 96¢ | called | 33d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | 75¢ | missed | 60d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 34¢ | called | 73d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | 82¢ | called | 92d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 87¢ | called | 102d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 92¢ | called | 131d ago |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 33¢ | called | 145d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 46¢ | missed | 154d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 83¢ | called | 154d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 61¢ | called | 168d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 5¢ | called | 170d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 15¢ | missed | 171d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.