Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$678
Return on staked
-12.3%
Bets
28/55 won
Edge vs price
-3.3 pts ±6.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +4.2 pts (16/27). Newer half: -10.5 pts (12/28). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 30, 06:48 EDTOct 23, 19:16 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | 49¢ | called | 23h ago |
| Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-3.5) | 83¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-22? | 56¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | 56¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-10-22? | 90¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: 76ers (-3.5) | 50¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 | 65¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | 53¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | 60¢ | called | 4d ago |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23¢ | missed | 5d ago |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18? | 68¢ | called | 6d ago |
| Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15? | 31¢ | missed | 9d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14? | 49¢ | called | 10d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | 42¢ | missed | 18d ago |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 68¢ | missed | 20d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.