Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$37
Return on staked
+2.0%
Bets
13/19 won
Edge vs price
+2.0 pts ±10.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -12.3 pts (5/9). Newer half: +14.9 pts (8/10).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 18, 11:08 EDTOct 24, 10:42 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Troy (-11.5) | 53¢ | missed | 11h ago |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | 52¢ | called | 4d ago |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 64¢ | missed | 27d ago |
| Eagles vs. Titans | 75¢ | called | 34d ago |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | 69¢ | called | 93d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 59¢ | called | 99d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | 76¢ | called | 105d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | 74¢ | called | 105d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | 59¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | 70¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | 80¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 64¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 68¢ | missed | 139d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 66¢ | missed | 142d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 65¢ | called | 156d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.